The government shutdown that began October 1st remains unresolved as of month-end, officially becoming the second-longest in U.S. history behind 2018. The shutdown, which is due to partisan gridlock over federal spending and health care subsidies, has disrupted government operations and caused hardship for federal workers. The market has mostly dismissed the stalemate as political noise, but the length of the shutdown is starting to raise concerns about its impact on consumer sentiment and business activity.

The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged this year due to concerns that tariffs could reignite inflation. This concern, along with strong job growth and low unemployment, gave the central bank time to wait for more data. However, the Fed’s policy stance was tested in early August when the July jobs report showed U.S. employers added fewer jobs than expected and unemployment rose to 4.2%.

Stocks climbed to new highs in July, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both logging six consecutive record closes late in the month. Investor sentiment improved after better-than-expected Q2 earnings and trade agreements with Japan and the EU, with tariff rates on the deals less severe than feared..

The latest tech spending boom has significantly impacted the stock market. Over the past two years, the S&P 500 technology sector gained +66%, outpacing the S&P 500’s +42% return. The “Magnificent 7,” a group of mega-cap AI leaders that includes Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, returned +89% over the same period, more than double the S&P 500’s price return. The group’s large index weight and its ability to convert the AI industry’s momentum into earnings growth have driven the stock market to a series of record highs.

With uncertainty on the horizon, the theme for the second half of 2025 is simple: focus on what you can control. It’s impossible to know what impact the tariffs will have on the global economy or whether the administration will change its mind on tariffs again. However, history shows the economy and market usually adapt to changing environments. Rather than reacting to headlines and market volatility, the best course of action is to stay focused on your financial plan, maintain a diversified portfolio, and make decisions in line with your long-term goals.

If you’re aiming for financial independence before 60, there’s a surprisingly specific hurdle in your path: age 59½. It’s not just an odd number—it’s the dividing line between flexibility and friction when it comes to accessing your retirement savings.

We all say it: "One day, I’ll finally [fill in the blank]." But what if waiting for "one day" means missing the life you want today? In our latest post, we explore the cost of deferring dreams—and how thoughtful planning can help you live more fully now and later.

Enough isn’t a number. It’s a feeling. It’s when your resources match your priorities. When you can spend time the way you want. When your financial decisions reflect your values — not your fears.

We live in real life. Where portfolios are tied to college dreams, retirement hopes, and the feeling of security. And in real life, watching the market drop doesn’t feel like an opportunity — it feels like a threat.

The stock market’s performance is a function of two variables: earnings and valuations. A company generates profits, and investors assign a multiple to those profits, such as 15x or 20x earnings, to determine the company’s valuation. This year, earnings have been in the spotlight as policy uncertainty around tariffs and global trade clouds the outlook. With Q2 earnings season starting in mid-July, it’s a good time to see how companies performed in Q1.

On paper, the answer often leans one way. If you’re sitting on a low-interest mortgage and have the option to invest the cash instead, the numbers usually favor investing. Over time, markets have historically outperformed mortgage interest rates — so the logical, quantitative answer is: keep the mortgage, invest the money.

What is most notable about this period is how quickly sentiment can change. Markets are forward-looking, which means they price in not only current conditions but also future expectations. This helps explain why the market can rally when data is weak and selloff despite strong earnings and economic growth.

Stocks declined in early April after the White House unveiled sweeping tariffs, with the S&P 500 falling over -10% in the first week. However, after the administration paused tariffs and trade tensions eased, the S&P 500 rebounded to finish the month with a loss of less than -1%.

The key takeaway for investors: volatility isn’t a sign that something is broken—it’s the price of admission to investing. Staying invested through ups and downs has consistently been one of the most effective strategies for building wealth over time. Market declines can feel unsettling in the moment, but history shows the powerful effect of compounding returns over time.

Market volatility can be unsettling, but it’s a normal part of investing. Periods of enthusiasm often lead to recalibration. It’s natural to feel uncertain, but history shows that staying invested through volatility and maintaining a longer-term view is a prudent approach. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced a decline of -5% or more in 91 of the past 98 years. Yet, markets have demonstrated an ability to recover and rewarded patience. By maintaining a diversified portfolio aligned with your long-term goals, we’re positioned to weather the market’s swings.

Stocks traded lower in a late-month sell-off as sentiment weakened. The S&P 500’s decline erased most of its post-election gains, which had been driven by expectations for stronger growth and deregulation under the new administration. Smaller companies underperformed, with the Russell 2000 ending the month more than -10% below its late November peak. Beneath the surface, the January market rotation continued as last year’s outperformers lagged.

Stocks traded higher to start 2025, but there was a change in market leadership as the rally broadened. Large Cap Value, which underperformed over the past 12 months, outperformed Large Cap Growth by over +2.5% in January. Likewise, the Dow Jones Index traded back toward its all-time high from early December after finishing the year in a downtrend. In contrast, the Growth factor, Nasdaq 100, and Technology sector each underperformed the S&P 500 after propelling the index higher throughout most of 2024.

The S&P 500 has rallied +50% since the start of 2023 and more than +150% from the COVID pandemic low in March 2020. The rally has produced a long list of all-time highs and boosted investment portfolios, but it has made broad market indices more expensive. The S&P 500 currently trades at over 21 times its next 12-month earnings estimate, a level not seen outside of periods like the late-1990s tech boom and the recent post-COVID recovery, when interest rates were near zero.

There was no shortage of market-moving events in Q4. The stock market opened the quarter with a slow start in October, but the outcome of the presidential election triggered a broad rally in November. The rally faded as the year ended, although the S&P 500 trades only a few percentage points below its all-time high.

The past two years have been remarkable for investors, with the S&P 500 posting back-to-back gains of over +20%. The chart below takes a closer look at 2024’s price movement and uses yellow shading to mark the days when it closed at an all-time high. At the start of this year, the S&P 500’s previous all-time high was set in January 2022. It took over two years to reclaim the prior high, but once the index broke through in late January 2024, it set more than 50 new highs this year.